by @FauxMole
Irish Water and the government claim that people with meters installed will be able to pay less than the capped charge (€160 for 1 adult; €260 for 2 or more adults) by reducing their water consumption by 15%.
From a report at http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/water/irish-water-crisis/half-of-homes-will-be-able-to-beat-the-water-meter-30762095.html
“The company estimated that one in three metered customers would receive bills below the capped rates. A reduction in consumption of 15pc, or 20 to 35 litres per day, would mean that 50pc of metered customers could reduce their bill to an amount below the cap.”
"We believe with a 15pc reduction, half the country will beat the meter”It sounds encouraging.
Unfortunately it is total fantasy (aka “bull”).
This is apparent once you look at the numbers.
Claim: 15% = 20 or 35 litres per day, so:
They now claim that each household in “Half the country” consumes 49 to 85 m3 per year.
This is nonsense – according to their own figures for Assessed Charges in the initial plan under which they had intended to issue bills.
“Half the country” would appear to consist of lone adults (perhaps with one child) and childless couples who consume less than normal.
Whether or not a 15% reduction in realistic consumption would get “half the country” under the cap is an entirely separate calculation
Spoiler: It would not.
- The consumption implied by their 15% = “20 or 30 litres per day” significantly understates what they stated for the initial pricing plan.
- Additionally, achievement of this 15% reduction is very suspect, as they say:
"In terms of the metering, we initially believed consumption could fall by 10pc to 15pc. We have seen lower levels in Dublin since October 1, but we can't make assumptions in that regard.”
From: http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/meters-will-cut-family-water-use-by-just-6-297603.html
The installation of water meters across the country will only result in a 6% saving in the amount of water an average family uses, the Commission for Energy Regulation has confirmed.
An average household of two adults and two children are expected to use 137,100 litres per year, the regulator says, which reduces to 129,000 with a meter.
129,000 litres (129 m3 ) ? Does that sound famliar?
See that Consumption grid above. Irish Waster was going to send out Assessed Bills to non-metered houses based on two adults and two children using 129 m3.
They were goig to issue assessed bills based on an expectation that the installation of a meter would in general only reduce consumption by 6%.
So what's this 15% reduction Dudes?
That doubt about 15% is backed up by this report:
http://www.heednet.org/metering-defraHEEDnet.pdf
TITLE: Do Water Meters Reduce Domestic Consumption?: a summary of available literature
This paper presents the best available current research on water metering around the world, with a special emphasis on European, North American and Commonwealth comparator nations. In summary, the research suggests that there is little evidence that compulsory universal metering can achieve either the water conservation or social equity goals articulated by the government. The author concludes that policymakers need to think much more carefully about metering technologies.
Related to the 15% above, it has to say:
The author has no particular position on the issue of water metering although on balance he feels that the most often cited argument, that it can result in 15% demand reduction, does not stand up to scrutiny.
It mentions a particular trial in the UK
By 1993 the early results of this trial had shown that the average reduction in domestic consumption associated with compulsory metering seemed to be around 11%, though DEFRA (2006) claims savings of between 10 and 15% (and ministers have been known to claim as much as 20%).So - if 15% reduction was noted, this was not due to a 15% lesser usage of water
However the same trials also showed that as much as 40% of this apparent reduction was actually the product of better leak detection rather than reduced/disciplined household consumption
It seems studies show that 10% or 11% reduction would be more realistic than 15%
Let’s see how 15% stands up to the consumption volumes that Irish Water published for the original billing plan.
It seems from CER's numbers that the consumption grid published by Irish Water on their website for teh initial billing plan already included a 6% 'meter effect', but let's take that as pre-meter so as to give Irish Water any chance of not being shown up as confidence tricksters ( more Irish Snake Oil than Irish Water ).
What are the cap volumes that people have to meet and drop under before they can see a lesser Bill?
‘Single adult’ cap is €160‘Two or more adults’ cap is €260
New (lower) price per cubic metre (1000 litres) is €3.70
The cap would therefore ‘buy’ 43.24 m3 for a single adult, or 70.27 m3 for two or more adults.
Each child gets an allowance of 21 m3 per year.
The cap volumes work out as:
What did Irish Water think households would consume?
But.. Let's go with these as the start point.
One has to presume these volumes were soundly based.
Noto that they appear to match numbers from CER (above) and have a 6% 'meter effect' built in.
Estimating this as accurately as possible has to be a prime activity in the set-up of a water utility.
It defines what the expected revenue will be. They can play with pricing, and the investment levels - but they have little or no control over the volumes being consumed.
It would be totally insane to proceed very far down the road with planning if these consumption numbers were not determined to a high degree of confidence beforehand.
Some €86 Million was spent on consultants. Unless they were grossly incompetent, one of their first actions would have been to come up with water consumption estimates that were as well-reasoned as possible. Without that data, all the rest of their work to create a viable entity would be fantasy.
Consumption data would not be guesswork. All over Europe, there are water meters on houses. The data on actual consumption for different occupant mixes is sitting there waiting - in water utilities, studies and reports.
What volumes would each grid combination need to drop in order to meet the cap volumes?
No sign of anything approaching 6% there - and not many 15% or under
If “half the country” can meet the cap with a 15% reduction in consumption, then “half the country” is made up of (circled in red):
- Single parents with 4 or more children, but need 5 or more to get under cap
- Couples with 2 or more children
“Child Benefit (previously known as Children's Allowance) is payable to the parents or guardians of children under 16 years of age, or under 18 years of age if the child is in full-time education, Youthreach training or has a disability. Child Benefit is not paid on behalf of 18-year olds.”
Note: As part of the climb-down from the original billing plan, Minister Alan Kelly changed this in his speech for teh government motion in the Dail. The child allowance is to apply for any child up to 18 - even if not in receipt of child benefit.
A couple with 2 young children could get under the cap with a 15% reduction. They need a 13% reduction to equal the cap.
Once the eldest child turns 18, they become 3 adults with 1 child. They would then need a 29% reduction to even meet the cap.
When the second child turns 18, they would need a 46% reduction to meet the cap.
BUT ... the post-meter redection that Irish Water expect(ed) was just 6%
This suppsed 15% reduction is very problematic ( aka miraculous ).
You're really going to need 3 children or more and cut by 10% to 11% to get down to the cap levels
"In terms of the metering, we initially believed consumption could fall by 10pc to 15pc.”OK. 10% to 15% - but 10% or 11% probably nearer the mark.
See the report linked above. The 'metering effect' might be 11% at best - and that Irish Examiner story indicates that the real expectation for Ireland was 6%
Higher rates measured were once-off when leaks were discoverd and fixed. They did not reflect the volumes of water actually used by the household.
What would bills come out as if every household reduces consumption by 15% ?
Start with the consumption that the best brains that €86Milion could buy calculated as normal consumption.
How much water do people use now?
Again:
Irish Water now (after the Governmant climb-down) seem to think that this would be the best generally achievable, but that there could be a spread between 10% and 15%.
So: “Beat the meter” ??
If you do unbelievably well and reduce by 15%, you will pay less than the cap only if you are:
- Single parent with 5 children. You pay €11 less
- Couple with 2 children. You pay €10 less.
- Couple with 3 children. You pay €21 less.
- Couple with 4 children. You pay €33 less.
- Couple with 5 children. You pay €45 less.
General achievement of that 15% reduction is very questionable.
10% or 11% seems to be a realistic figure that is supported by studies.
6% seems to be CER's estimate
Apart from an ultra strict regime of water usage, it would involve investment to install dual-flush WCs, tap aerators, low-flow shower heads, etc. One would need rainwater harvesting as well.
This is all very well if you are on a TD salary (€87,000 ish) plus fat unvouched expenses & allowances, plus a ministerial level salary (€100,000 to €200,000 ish) plus fat pensions from previous positions. It might also not be a problem for managers in Irish Water or the consultants who took €86 million for creating an utter shambles (again).
If you are on the breadline, the costs might be a problem.
But hey! You are getting a “Water Conservation Grant”. A few years of that could cover the cost of some conservation plumbing. Yes?
No. You need it to help pay the €160 or €260. It’s just a stroke by government to try reduce resistance to billing while trying to make it look like Irish Water is not getting an additional government support of €100 per household.
The stroke would cost more than direct aid as the €100 is going to all households – even if they have their own water supply and/or wastewater treatment.
"In terms of the metering, we initially believed consumption could fall by 10pc to 15pc. We have seen lower levels in Dublin since October 1, but we can't make assumptions in that regard.”
(‘Even 10% reduction might be optimistic. Cross fingers. Early days.’)
Here are the capped bills for the usage reduction range 15% down to 10%
If 10% (or even less!) reduction is the norm rather than 15%, then the only way to pay less than the cap is clear:
- Get married or partnered. Don’t break up. At least live in the same house.
Breed like rabbits. You need to get to 4 children. That way you’ll save about €1 /year. Go for a 5th child and you’ll save about €9 per year.
BUT.....
Is even 10% reduction too optimistic?
How about 6% - that Irish Water actually expected?
Or 0% - that Irish Water saw happening on meters in Dublin after only a few weeks of an initial dip?
http://www.newstalk.com/Irish-Water-confirms-water-demand-returned-to-regular-levels-after-two-weeks-of-charges
Everybody pays €160 or €260 up until the billing rules change – which they absolutely will as soon as the government gets its nerve back.
Then you’ll be facing into the billing levels originally designed at huge expense (€86 Million) as making Irish Water viable.
The EMC / Gang of Four (who really run the Cabinet) destroyed the Irish Water bottom line by capping the bills and reducing the cost per cubic meter.
They then moved to inflate Irish Water revenues to the tune of €100 per household, but in the hope that Brussels would not see this as the direct support that it really is.
It has to be said.
These tulips, making their “beat the meter” claims are either
- Grossly incompetent, or
- Brazen con men intent of fooling people so as to reduce the pressure ( to a trickle?)
It gets more crazy
Michael McNicholas ( chief executive of the Irish Water parent operation, Ervia ) - Come on Down!http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/water/irish-water-crisis/irish-water-bets-its-future-on-rinkydink-business-strategy-30764580.html
“According to McNicholas, around 25pc of households are already below the implied usage level in those charges and can reduce their bill easily.
The guy must be sniffing his own product.
These are the bills that would result from Irish Water own assessments of the water volumes that people are using now (with 0% reduction)
Hint.1: 0% (or that direction) are below usage level
Hint.2: A 10% ‘metering effect’ could be achievable by some. In these cases the bills would be:
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